Well, It Worked Last Time
People are model builders
Whether we're talking about politics or the right way to grill a steak, we all have hidden worldviews that manifest in our actions. If a friend does something that seems patently self destructive to you, then you’ve seen this phenomenon in action. Maybe they really are just being irrational, but also consider that they are acting out some hidden process that you can’t directly observe.
When I worked in the commodities business, my mentors admonished me about getting into the prediction business: "You're only as good as your last forecast," they said. Which makes perfect sense. And yet we’re swimming in an ocean of predictions. The talking heads you see on cable news or YouTube make predictions that are ridiculously wrong all the time. Yet they keep on going, and people still listen to them, quote them, even make decisions based on those faulty mental models of the world.
When something works, especially the first time you tried it, it’s easy to conclude that you’ve figured it all out, but don’t forget that there is often (always?) a hidden process behind that outcome.
Sometimes, you only get one shot, but more often, you will encounter situations on a repeat basis, and the results might be different, even if you did the same thing that worked last time. The phrase "tipping points" gets thrown around, but when I first saw this kind of chart, the idea of system states in agriculture became clear:
The interpretation I take from this is if you spray, use mating disruption, whatever, at Point A, then you get a different result than if you did it at Point E. In one sense, this is obvious, but when you add multiple dimensions - beneficial insect populations, freak weather events, what your next door neighbor is doing - then things start to get interesting. But at the same time, they get harder to hold in your working memory.
Every moment is a potentially new system state
Humans can do a remarkably good job in highly nuanced situations. Think about an old gas lawn mower that only starts up when you give it a couple of kicks, flip the choke lever just so, and count two-Mississippi before you rip the pull cord. The problem with that is that, unless that knowledge is articulated, no one else is ever going to be able to start up that lawnmower. So much embodied knowledge gets lost; let’s find ways to make it accessible!
What if we had tools that continuously ran the numbers for us? Mostly out of sight so we don't get too distracted, but available to us on demand. A Magic 8-Ball (or text message) delivering just-in-time advice and timely knowledge:
- What do I need to do *right now*?
- Where do I need to be?
- Whose advice should I take when hear contradictory opinions?
- Is someone else better suited to take care of this, or do I have to do it myself?
Big commodity crops have something we don't often see in specialty crops: the sheer level of information infrastructure devoted to making markets work more efficiently. A decentralized network of independent operators are interpreting facts on the ground, applying their mental world models (none of which are 100% correct), and making bets on their beliefs by actually putting money on the line. The outcomes of this collective process are important: price discovery, for one, but even better is that it shines a little more light in front of us as we navigate that dark maze of life.
While the above statement is true for markets, I don't believe we have anything really comparable in terms of the physical management landscape. Maybe we need to move beyond thinking about predictions and focus on our awareness of system states, and at the same time shorten our response times to act effectively with that awareness.
Are there signals to help us identify what state we are in? Yes, but the technical and knowledge infrastructure is not there in a way that allows us to dial them in on demand. What could we do if we had them?